Does Better Academic Preparation Predict Teacher Workforce Outcomes?

We link comprehensive student data on university applications and transcripts from three public universities in Washington to teacher workforce entry, effectiveness (measured by value added), and retention. We find that SAT scores are not strongly related to any of these outcomes, but college students with higher university GPAs are more likely to become teachers, and those who enter the workforce with higher GPAs are more effective as measured by math and English language arts (ELA) value-added. These findings are robust to sample selection adjustments and to checks for selection into different college courses, school districts, and out of the teacher workforce. The relationship between GPA and teacher effectiveness is driven largely by grades in math courses designed specifically for teachers. Performance in regular math courses does not predict effectiveness or retention. However, we find that teachers who take at least one advanced math course (400-level or higher) are more effective in both math and ELA than those who do not. Finally, teachers who expressed interest in education at the time of university application are more likely to remain in the workforce once they enter than those who did not. Together, these results suggest that information from college applications and transcripts carries meaningful signals about future teacher effectiveness and retention.